IN THE latest edition of our pre-season series of tips from the SuperCoach experts, Les Wales explains the secrets of team selection.
SUPERCOACH is open for another year which, for us diehards, is the fantasy equivalent of Christmas. There's a box of new toys to play with and a fresh season with infinite potential.
This could be the year your research, analysis, gut feel and, of course, a little bit of luck all come together to see you standing above all others in September as the 2014 SuperCoach champion.
But we're a long way from those lofty dreams of glory. Your initial team selection is the critical foundation on which the whole season rests.
The first point to make is to do your research. You have to know the game to win the game, and to know the game you need to know the teams, the players and, in particular, what is going to change from last year.
You also need to be comfortable with the fantasy strategies which can best help you turn that football knowledge into SuperCoach success.
AFL coaches love to talk about structure and the word applies to SuperCoach too. While it's fun to just start picking a team from the backline, you will be much more successful if you come armed with a plan (and you won't run out of cash with three empty spots in the forward line).
My general rule of thumb is to have 3-4 value mid-price players, 3-6 rookies on the field (plus two on the bench in each position), a couple of underpriced premiums then burn the remaining dollars on top-line stars.
10 SUPERCOACH COMMANDMENTS1. VALUE PICKS
When sitting down in front of a computer putting my squad together, the first thing I look for is value.
There is often great value to be found in players who were injury-affected last year as, overall, they have a lower average for the year and they generally attract discounts in their pricing. Yes, there is significant risk in picking this type of player, but nailing them is essential for any successful SuperCoach.
Some examples this year are Hawthorn defender Matt Suckling, who missed 2013 with an ACL injury, and Hamish McIntosh, Dale Thomas and Aaron Sandilands, whose performances last season were hindered through injury.
These players have attracted discounts in their pricing due to missing games, or simply performing well below their former averages, which means you can add them to your squad for much less money than other premium players, with the potential for them to go large.
Marc Murphy or Dayne Beams are examples of players who were affected by lesser injuries and who go into the 2014 season 20 per cent cheaper than in 2013.
You can also find value in players who copped the subs vests in the previous year.
Richmond's Brandon Ellis averages 20 per cent more when you exclude his sub games. Ellis wore the sub vest in his first four matches last year, bringing down his overall average, which means his pricing doesn't accurately represent his potential to score in your team.
Anthony Morabito, Nathan Bock and Gary Rohan are all coming into the season significantly underpriced due to a few years of misfortune, making them the definition of high-risk/high-reward.
Brandon Ellis could sail into the Richmond midfield this year. Picture: Tom Lee Source: News Limited
2. ROOKIESYou'll need gun rookies who you expect to be on the field in the first few weeks and rookies for your bench.
Jack Martin, James Aish and Dayle Garlett are a few young stars who will be in plenty of teams, and for good reason.
We'll get a better idea of who's a must-have to fill the bench through the pre-season, learning all that we can about those important rookies who will make us significant dollars over the early part of the season.
Just remember, you want a team full of warm, playing bodies. Don't be sucked into the utter cheapies who won't get a game (with the potential exception of your fourth ruck, but that's a different article).
3. SUPERSTARS
Finally comes the fun bit - figuring out just how many guns you can squeeze in with the remaining funds.
You will need at least one super-gun like Gary Ablett or Dane Swan to name as your captain but, outside of that, I like to grab players that I enjoy watching like Scott Pendlebury, Jobe Watson or Lance Franklin.
There are, however, a couple of factors you need to take into account, the most important being durability. Ideally, these guys will be in your squad for the entire year and you don't want them to be wasting away on the sidelines.
The next factor to consider is the bye rounds. A team full of the up and coming Tigers might seem like a good idea, but come Round 8 you'll find yourself struggling to field a full team. Even building a squad with too many Richmond, Geelong, Collingwood, North, Adelaide and Gold Coast players will cause issues, considering those teams share the same bye round.
So make sure your team is well spread across the byes, especially when it comes to your star players. Rookies don't matter as much as you'll find yourself trading them in them over this period.
How many premiums fit into your line-up will depend on how cheap the mid-pricers are, or how many rookies you trust to start.
So if I decided to build my team with Suckling, Sandilands, Daisy and Mitch Clark, and maybe throw in Beams and Murphy, I would be able to enter the season with a good number of premiums, trusting these guys to score well, but also trusting that I am fielding only the best rookies available.
BUT WAIT
One thing to remember at this stage of the year is that everything is fluid.
Right now you might like the look of squad featuring a collection of mid-price players, but as more rookies put up their hand in the pre-season, you may find yourself drifting into more of a "guns and rookies" approach as you remove some of those mid-pricers to replace them with a gun and a rookie.
What is important now is to keep track of a pool of players so your final squad winds up as an optimum selection of these groups.
So here we are. Beginning the year with a fresh slate. No one has been beaten down by the early-game injury to your captain, the red vest to a promising youngster or the dreaded long-term injury to one of your stars.
We're all on equal first right now. All perfectly placed to win this thing. But, with solid research and forethought, some of us are a little more perfectly placed than others.
